Brian Kenny has a "Kill the Win" campaign, in which he basically argues that as a statistic, a pitcher's win-loss record doesn't really tell you how the pitcher performed. And this is true. You can give up 5 runs in 6 innings and get a win, you can go 9 innings and give up one run and lose. This came up again yesterday in light of Masahiro Tanaka signing with the Yankees -- and Tanaka's 24-0 record last year.
When it comes to analyzing a pitcher, or trying to predict what he will do next year, win-loss record isn't the most useful tool. In that regard, Kenny is right. However, I wonder if it doesn't have value as a narrative tool. Consider 1987. There you have Nolan Ryan. He leads the National League with a 2.76 ERA. Leads the league in strikeouts.
He has an 8-16 record for the Astros.
There's a story there. There's a tale to tell. A 40 year old walks out and leads the league in ERA... and loses almost half of his starts. Yet you have Jim Deshaies go 11-6 with a 4.62 ERA. What was going on there - what happened. The team was 76-86, only 10 games under .500, and yet Ryan goes "eight" games under when having what actually is one of his best seasons.
What was that like? What was that story? What reactions do you get from Ryan when the team plays so poorly in his starts? A pitcher's win loss doesn't really talk about the pitcher so much as it speaks to how the rest of the team plays when he is going... and that's always a place for stories.
No comments:
Post a Comment